President Obama made the strategic choice of distancing himself unequivocally from his predecessor on the international scene. The task ahead is to convince the rest of the world, including the most hostile countries, to share his vision of international affairs and forge ahead with a new foreign policy. This new ESF Working Paper follows the 32nd ESF Forum, chaired by François Heisbourg at CEPS, June 2009, under the title: Obama’s Foreign Policy: Is this change we can believe in?

The latest in the series of European Security Forum papers brings together the presentations given at a Forum held at CEPS in November 2008 by three distinguished speakers: Daniel Gros looks at The Rise of China from the EU perspective, Brantly Womack describes Washington Tea Parties: Managing Problems and Imagining Solutions in US China Policy and Variants of Russia’s Policy towards the Rise of China are considered by Alexei D. Voskressenski.

The 28th session of the European Security Forum, on 11 February 2008, was timed one week before the expected declaration of independence by the government of Kosovo. The widespread expectation is that the US and a progressive cascade of EU member states will recognise Kosovo, and that the EU will go ahead with a major ‘rule of law’ mission there without further UN resolution (arguing that the wording of the existing Resolution 1244 is sufficiently elastic to authorise this action).

The US administration coined the term ‘Greater Middle East’ as it sought to follow up the invasion of Iraq with a strategic plan for peace and democratic reform – in a vast area stretching from Morocco to Afghanistan. This ESF paper examines the interconnected and overlapping conflicts in the region, seen partly in the frame of the unintended consequences of US policy and partly in relation to al-Qaeda’s expansion.

The collapse of the Orange coalition marked a turning point in Ukraine’s political direction. Although it had previously sought closer ties with the West and key institutions such as NATO and the EU, today it’s foreign policy orientation is less clear. This collection of European Security Forum papers gathers authoritative views on Ukraine’s security outlook, considering its relations with the West and its powerful neighbour, Russia.

In addition to the regular “Chairman’s summing-up” by ESF Chairman François Heisbourg, this number in the ESF Working Paper series includes a contribution on “The Role of Islam in Europe: Multiple Crises?” by Amel Boubekeur (CEPS) and Samir Amghar (EHESS, Paris); one entitled “The Multiple Crisis in Dutch Parallel Societies” by Rob de Wijk (Clingendael Institute, The Hague); and “Islam in Russia in 2020, by Alexey Malashenko (Carnegie Centre, Moscow).

At the Thessaloniki meeting of the European Council (June 2003), the prospect was laid out of including the Balkans, over time, within the European Union. How that vision is to be fulfilled is obviously very much open to question. Short-term events are going to put the Balkans at the centre of European security concerns over the coming months in the run-up to United Nations’ discussions on Kosovo’s final status in mid-2005.

Russia and the EU talk in their summit communiqués about their strategic partnership, but it seems like an awkward partnership. The relationship is not that bad, certainly not life-threatening, but there is room for improvement. This working paper from the European Security Forum considers the complex relationship between Russia and the West, including the complementary qualities and the differences in how the each views the world.

No. 8