Trade Developments


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27 February 2013

The ‘Emergent Brazil’ growth model is reaching its limits. Its main engines have been slowing significantly since the beginning of the global financial and economic crisis. Even its much-praised predictable macroeconomic policy has been eroded by political interference. Inflationary pressures are growing and GDP performance is anaemic. As ominous, Brazil cannot compensate for its domestic deficiencies with an export drive. Commodity exports are suffering with the world economic slow-down and the manufacturing industries’ competitiveness is in sharp decline.

22 February 2013

This policy paper spells out the policy recommendations that emerge from a series of detailed studies undertaken for MEDPRO Work Package 5 on “Economic development, trade and investment” and presents detailed recommendations for the SEMCs and the EU in the areas of macroeconomic management, trade, investment, private sector development and privatisation, and sectoral policies.

Marek Dabrowski and Luc De Wulf are Fellows at CASE (Center for Social and Economic Research) in Warsaw.

13 February 2013

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected.

14 March 2012

This paper studying the 1995 EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) reveals that the CU has been a major instrument of integration of the Turkish economy into the EU and global markets, offering powerful tools to reform the Turkish economy. Turkish producers of industrial goods are protected by tariffs from external competition to exactly the same extent as EU producers, and they face competition from duty-free imports of industrial goods from world-class pan-European firms.

25 July 2011

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region.

27 May 2011

While there is a broad empirical literature on the impact of trade on environment, the literature on the impact of environmental regulations on trade flows is relatively scarce, very heterogeneous and presents mixed results. The innovative feature of this paper is its attempt to estimate, in a gravity setting, the overall impact on 14 EU countries’ bilateral exports of three major Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs).

16 November 2010

Relations between China and the West have been difficult for some time.
Recently, however, one issue in particular has made the headlines: rare earths. Vital for the production of low-carbon products such as hybrid cars and wind turbines, consumer goods and sensitive military hardware like cruise missiles and smart bombs, rare earths are indispensable for high-tech industries and emerging technologies.

26 July 2010

This working paper addresses a number of policy-relevant issues regarding the EU’s bilateral investment treaties (BITS), namely, whether the EU’s BITs have a significantly positive impact on outflows; and which member states and which BIT partners have had a significant experience after the implementation of the BIT. The author finds that both OECD BITs and EU BITs have a statistically significant and positive impact on FDI outflows.

05 March 2010

The Southeast Europe (SEE) region comprises a group of countries with a common objective, and prospect, to become members of the European Union (EU). To achieve the goal of EU membership, these countries have pursued closer integration with the EU as well as with each other. In December 2006, the SEE countries, and Moldova, signed the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), a comprehensive free trade agreement that aims to fully liberalize trade in the region as well as to achieve greater cooperation in a number of trade-related areas.

01 September 2009

This study on the economic integration of the Euro-Med region was conducted from December 2008 to September 2009 under contract with the European Commission (TRADE08/C2/C16). We benefited greatly from the consultations with the European Commission during the kick off meeting and from the subsequent exchange of comments and suggestions. We are very grateful for their support.

25 November 2008

This study is a qualitative analysis of a potential free trade agreement between the EU and South Korea conducted from January to April 2007, under a contract from the Directorate General for Trade of the European Commission. The study aims to provide a basis for the negotiations that started in May 2007 between the EU and South Korea. As such, it is an in-depth examination of the extent to which EU exporters face non-tariff barriers to trade with Korea.

30 October 2008

At the EU-Canada Summit on the 17th October in Montreal, it was announced that both parties got the green light to draw up the negotiating mandates for an “enhanced economic partnership” agreement. CEPS Research Fellow Selen Sarisoy Guerin argues that this ambitious new generation bilateral agreement will be one of a kind.

14 July 2008

This paper argues that there are significant potential economic gains to be obtained from an EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The evolution of trade between the US and Canada following the signing of CUSFTA in 1989 offers a good illustration of how trade might increase after an EU-Canada FTA, as the patterns and levels of protection between the EU and Canada today are very similar to the protection that existed between the US and Canada in 1989.

03 July 2008

CEPS Research Fellow Jorge Nùñez Ferrer expresses concern in this commentary over the implications of the recent price hikes in food commodities worldwide for the decisions that will be taken in the course of the ‘health check’ currently underway of the CAP and for the potential longer-term consequences for the EU budget review.

29 April 2008

Last year the European Union began negotiating free trade agreements (FTAs) with South Korea, India and ASEAN. These negotiations are important because they are among the EU’s first round of new generation FTAs as called for in the Global Europe: Competing in the World communiqué. They are also important because if and when the agreements are signed, they will be the EU’s first bilateral FTAs in the region.

07 June 2007

Full title: Global Supply Chains, Standards and the Poor: How the Globalization of Food Systems and Standards Affects Rural Development and Poverty

28 December 2006

This book examines the repercussions of the EU’s agricultural policies and its regional, bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. It presents the analyses and findings of the European Network of Agricultural and Rural Policy Research Institutes (ENARPRI), a unique collaboration of experts from across the EU. Their contributions to this volume focus on trade flows and economic development, exploring how the agreements affect the EU and the other countries and regions involved.

25 September 2006

The indefinite prorogation of the WTO’s Doha trade talks in July suggests that the global appetite for multilateralism may now be seriously weakened. In this new Policy Brief, CEPS Senior Research Fellow David Kernohan and T. Huw Edwards of Loughborough University look at how a failed or significantly delayed Doha round (say till 2009 at the earliest) could affect the scope and structure of any eventual WTO deal. In particular, if a rise in regionalism in the interim is inevitable, they ask whether the EU should reassess its regional trade policy objectives?

07 July 2006

The Doha trade round has reached a critical stage, after five years of stop-start negotiations. Many are pessimistic and feel that the international mood is insufficiently engaged to bring success. Nevertheless, our CEPS Task Force on trade considers that a deal is in fact closer than some might imagine, especially if sufficient political will can be generated at the ongoing WTO negotiations in Geneva and the forthcoming G8 summit in St Petersburg.

21 June 2006

The ongoing negotiations between the EU and Mercosur countries to conclude a free trade agreement (FTA) have been overshadowed by the parallel WTO negotiations on the Doha Development Agenda (DDA). Potentially, this agreement could have considerable impact on European agricultural markets. Aside from the outcome of the WTO talks, any change of doctrine within the EU in the direction of placing increased emphasis on bilateral agreements would probably mean that an EU–Mercosur FTA should be concluded before too long.

08 June 2006

The Doha negotiations have renewed interest in the effects of liberalisation of markets on developing countries. Middle-income developing countries stand to gain more because the commodity composition of their exports is such that they will gain substantially in large commodity markets, while lower-income countries need additional help to take advantage of new opportunities in smaller or niche markets.

07 June 2006

The transformation of Czech agriculture since 1990 under the different stages of agricultural policy has resulted in the emergence of a strong, dual farm structure with a high share of leased land and profit-maximising (vs. family) farms. This working paper assesses the current situation concerning the multifunctional aspects of Czech farms.

01 December 2005

Regional trade agreements play an ever-increasing role in world trade, accounting for more than 50% of global transactions today. Recently such large players as the US, Japan and many emerging countries have begun to conclude multiple bilateral trade agreements. At the same time, the EU, being a pioneer of this strategy, has declared a moratorium on new regional trade negotiations. Meanwhile, negotiations within the Doha Development Agenda are dragging along, without producing any tangible results from the EU’s perspective.

01 December 2005

This policy brief provides an overview of the magnitude and importance of food aid as a development tool, and looks at whether the efficiency problem is intrinsic to food aid, or whether it arises from donor-country policies that tend to misuse food aid – in some cases for purposes for which it is demonstrably not effective – for example to support domestic farm prices, to promote commercial agricultural exports, to maintain a viable maritime industry or even to advance geo-strategic aims.

01 November 2005

In the background of the Doha Round of trade negotiations, this study proposes a CGE assessment of multilateral liberalisation of market access for non-agricultural products. The scenarios considered include the so-called ‘Girard proposal’ (with alternative choices for the coefficient involved), the removal of tariff peaks and complete liberalisation.

01 October 2005

This paper gives an overview of the channels by which the EU budget is directly or indirectly affected by the change in the external trade relations of the EU. In addition it discusses what role the EU budget can play, despite its limited size and scope, in addressing some other key challenges presented by globalisation and liberalised trade flows. The paper begins with a detailed theoretical explanation of the ways in which the EU budget is directly or indirectly affected by its revenues, structure and objectives.